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White Marlin
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thanks for taking MS out of your prediction
   
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Snapper
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Ha ha, what do you mean, I have Mobile in there....... He he....
Steve Adams
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Blue Marlin
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weatherman (9/6/2008)
Now, there is still a small chance that Ike could hook NE over FL and out into the Atlantic but things are shaping up for more of a panhandle hit. I am going 75 percent sure that Ike will strike somewhere between Mobile, AL and Tallahassee, FL and 25 percent of Ike hooking NE and striking the West coast of FL.
Stay tuned, I will post more when I know more. For sure though, we are starting to run through our checklist here at the house especially because we have time this weekend.How are you dismissing the more western track of many of the model runs???? Many of the models are betting that the weakness in the ridge will not be strong enough to turn Ike directly northward and instead keep more of a WNW to NW track and bring it somwhere from Pensacola to Louisiana. Just asking. In fact I do not see any of the models now turning it back to the west coast of Florida.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Mingo
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There goes my vacation, but beyond that, wishing all you guys down there well. This does not look good at all.
yakyakyakyakyak
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Mingo
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It seems that you follow the GFDL model, correct weatherman? It seems like there is still a lot more models out there that send Ike more west. Masters agrees with you, I just wondered what it is that makes the more north-northwesterly turn more apparent?
yakyakyakyakyak
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Snapper
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TP, I had one still pulling NE, and you are right about the weakness (a trough of low pressure, aka front) will be the key to moving Ike. Its that trough of low pressure that will or wont move Ike. I have the High weakening and the trough moving through at the same time so I had discounted (threw out) the western track models. Both the GFDL and the GFS, which the latter of the two I have great respect for from Cuba North have Ike coming North into the trough.
As you can see from the NHC depictions, they are also turning it more N, which means they are leaning forward with the fact that the trough will impact Ike's progression. What I am saying is that I have leaned all the way forward that it will.
Good catch though on the Westward tracking models, I really hope they are right and I am wrong. This would be a good time for me to be wrong.
Steve Adams
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Snapper
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Snivelm, I dont follow the GFDL, I do look at it, but its a 50/50 model for me which really is pretty good as hurricane forecasting goes. I use all the models but really narrow them down depending on where the storm is and forecast to be. Then I use whatever model that has done the best historically in that area. So for instance, I may use a certain model when a storm is in the Gulf versa a storm is in the Carribean. That being said I really like the GFS for Gulf systems that are North of Cuba. I have gotten pretty lucky with it. And yes its luck, scientific luck I guess but mother nature will do what mother nature will do. I just like to narrow down her options a bit.
Now, for Ike, being that the GFDL and the GFS are somewhat in agreement, that and a few other things have me raising the warning flag.
Steve Adams
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Grouper
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Mingo
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Isn't the GFS model heading out towards La.?
yakyakyakyakyak
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White Marlin
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Snapper
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http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=model&view=loops
Steve Adams
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White Marlin
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Mingo
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yeah, all the GFS models (on the OhioSt page) move it over towards LA, right? It seems the GFDL is the main one that has it coming towards FL....
yakyakyakyakyak
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Blue Marlin
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Either way, my diving trip will probably be canceled and the camping get together is looking like it might be interupted.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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White Marlin
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well latest models have it headed west through the gulf........hope they hold their course..
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Mingo
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looking a little better...
yakyakyakyakyak
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Mingo
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yakyakyakyakyak
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Snapper
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Well, two model runs later and two different stories. Ike will enter the gulf on Tuesday and restrengthen, thats definite. Whats not definite is everything after that, I am still sure we will see some impact here. Even if Ike makes landfall in LA or MS we will see a greater affect than Gustav.
Prepare, be aware, we will know Tuesday evening where Ike is going to make landfall. This will be a large CAT 4 storm upon landfall.
Steve Adams
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Trigger
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Anyone else notice that the newest sets of models continue to slowly crawl back to the east?
You can run, but you'll only die tired!
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Trigger
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...although with my stellar inputs with Gustav. I still think that this is funny:
You can run, but you'll only die tired!
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Snapper
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Yes, its going to be interesting come Tuesday for sure. Once it restrengthens into a CAT 4 in the Gulf a lot of meteorological reasoning sort of goes out the window as a storm that big will have a mind of its own. What I do like about a bigger storm is that it would take a bigger weakness in the high pressure to turn it North, once a big storm gets moving in one direction it takes a lot to really turn it. I now am not sold on the Northward turn into us now due to the storm looking like it will be one for the record books as it restrengthens into a biggun.
There will be a lot of back and forth until Tuesday afternoon. Prepare, be aware, stock up on frosties...... I dont know if my 2 cases are gonna be enough.
Steve Adams
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Grouper
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Alot of the models and tracks have it going west now....is this looking better for us or what??? what are the odds of it still turning north??
Jeff Perkins 
www.myspace.com/disturbedoverwho 2009 Unofficial Spring Shark Tournament Winners!
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Sailfish
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I'm supposed to fly to Tampa tomorrow for work and be there until Thursday afternoon, so the question is, do I go? Will I get stuck there likely?
______________________________________________________________________________________________
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Ruby Red Lip
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Well dang. Im in the Coast Guard in Pascagoula and live in Mobile. Looks like im going to be busy at work for awhile.  Keeping my fingers crossed that weatherman is wrong about this thing. Sometimes its better to not be good at your job. Thanks for the updates weatherman I look at your post more than the National hurricane center when the boss man wants hurricane info. 
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Ruby Red Lip
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Grouper
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Trigger
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weatherman (9/7/2008)
This will be a large CAT 4 storm upon landfall.Intensity forecasts are the hardest thing for the NHC to get right. These storms have a history of coming up the gulf and weakening before landfall once they reach the northern gulf. Wasn't Gustav supposed to be a bad ass cat 4 at landfall too? And Ivan, Kat., Rita, Dennis, Opal, etc... The water up here was stirred up from Gustav.......that isn't good for Ike. I would still PREPARE with the idea of a cat. 4 hitting in mind, but most likely we will have a cat. 3 somewhere on the gulf coast in a few days
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Mingo
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| No, we are NOT in the clear. There are now two models that hit us, directly or indirectly. One is a "you all get it in both holes" solution, that takes it up to just before NOLA, then stalls and turns it just north of east, raking the coast and coming in between Mobile and Pensacola. If that verifies it will lay waste everything from NOLA to Destin with a 20ish foot storm surge and strong Cat 3 winds. The odds of it being right this far out are not high. However, that's about the worst-case scenario for anyone in the path who get whalloped.
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Ruby Red Lip
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| Looks like most models shifted east by at least 100 miles since last night.
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Blue Marlin
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Mellow Yellow (9/8/2008)
Looks like most models shifted east by at least 100 miles since last night.There might be a short wave that may move across the US in the coming days. Some of the models (GFS for one) are starting to pick up on this and it might influence Ike. By tomorrow, once Ike clears Cuba, the models may get more of a handle on how this wave should affect Ike. If it grabs it, it may swing it more northward than the NHC is predicting right now. In the last discussions, it has been mentioned. But untill a few more models pick up on this possible front, the NHC will not move the track. I don't think it has enough time to grab it to bring it right at us. But it could force it to come a little closer than I would like. With the uncertainty the the NHC has with this storm, I would not place any bets on a landfall position yet. They are the experts and they are very uncertain right now past 3-4 days out. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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